GLD Archives | Bulls on Wall Street

Stock Market Review week of August 7th 2011

Kunal Desai — Sun, 07 Aug 2011 23:36:09 +0000

Crazy week last week. the markets were taken down in a very decisive manner due to all sorts of geopolitical and political headlines. This is a cash heavy market. I am currently 100% cash and very happy to. The thing about cash is that its the best hedge possible. I have no care in the world if the market opens down 1000 points tomorrow or 100 points as im cash. As i keep telling you guys this is not a good environment to swingtrade. When you break below key support levels like the 200dma what you will tend to see is gap downs all the time. So swingtrading can be very difficult as your basically losing money while you sleep as you wake up and your stock will be down 5%.

Expect a very news driven week. This will make the trading difficult as rumors and news will be what makes the market move.

We have a fed meeting on Tuesday. This will be major as people will be cluing in to see if the fed can concoct something to save the markets and whether QE3 is on the table.

Europe looks like crap. My guess is they will buy spanish and italian bonds but thats just a stopgap to prevent full on contagion. Spain is a pretty dang big country the now way anybody just has the money to bail them out.

Historially the odds tell us after such a death drop there will be a bounce and a nice one but we need to confirm through price action on shorter timeframes. We cant just buy blindly.

capital preservation is key….i want a fully loaded gun for when i see the sign that its buytime.

The post Stock Market Review week of August 7th 2011 appeared first on Bulls on Wall Street.

Textbook

Kunal Desai — Wed, 20 Jul 2011 19:01:32 +0000

Update after original post – this could help the market tomorrow on possible drop in dollar.

Good evening, team Bulls.

Yup, textbook technical reversal today. Even with the good earnings reports, the market faded all afternoon on continued worries about the debt ceiling and other issues I’ll get to below.

Before I dive into my market thoughts, I have to say Boyah, Cramer style, on the strong move in ISRG today. One of my all-time faves. OK.. got that out of my system; let’s move on.

What does the big picture tell us about today’s action and what we can expect the for rest of the week?

Let’s hit the facts:

Housing numbers sucked this morning, proving once again that we can’t count on housing to push up the economy. It appears that housing will follow, not lead.
Earnings have been good, BUT the outlook from some of the market leaders has been mixed. As discussed last week, earnings OUTLOOKS are more important than whether they hit their estimates, or not. Most have been hitting/beating, but look at INTC‘s report today.. strong, yes, but the stock is down after hours because of their outlook on the PC market. From CNBC:

Intel topped forecasts for both earnings and revenue, which the company attributed to strong corporate, mobile and emerging market demand. But the stock fell as the company slightly lowered its outlook for the PC market.

The debt ceiling is still in focus and center stage
Tons of data tomorrow. If you’re looking for a good reason for today’s fade into close, here it is. Since trading is about minimizing risk while maximizing opportunities, today was NOT a day to swing heavy. Why? Too many variables.. in other words, too much risk. Tomorrow’s Phili Fed number is very important..VERY. Let’s not forget we’ll also see Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Bloomberg Consumer Confidence, and CB Leading Index.

So, let’s put it all together from a risk standpoint:

Risk is back OFF and volatility remains giving day traders a huge edge over swing traders. Tomorrow, alone, economic data could move us in either direction. Earnings could do the same. And, the big hammer (debt ceiling) could smash us to new lows or propel us to new highs. In other words, hell if I know where we’re going in the near term. However, having said that, I do think it would be very wise to stay very close to your long watch list. If the debt ceiling is raised, I believe we have a bull run. Until then, I’m not looking to take too many trades home with me at night. Instead, I’ll watch the Boom Factory where the real action is.. Swing traders will get their edge, I just don’t see it yet. Some will work and some won’t.

Technically speaking.. textbook:

My debt ceiling theory is holding for now as SPY failed on two attempts today to move through the horizontal resistance I’ve been constantly referring to lately (see chart). Three things can move it above, in my opinion: Massive Phili Fed Number tomorrow, big surprise from the job numbers, or the debt ceiling being raised. I think the only way we move above and STAY above is the third – debt ceiling raised. Earnings will become much more important once we get economic data out of the way…notice that earnings haven’t really done much for us, even with AAPL.

So, what’s next for me? I will continue to build swing watch list just in case the doors open up to the long side and less uncertainty takes over. At the same time, I’ll have my finger on GLD call options if all hell breaks loose. Yes, you can short stocks or play TZA if the market falls apart. I have no issues with that -I’ll try to play TZA as day trades in that environment, as well. However, taking advantage of GLD option volatility can be very rewarding (but, be careful).

click to enlarge

The post Textbook appeared first on Bulls on Wall Street.

Stock Market Index Review 7/17/2011

Kunal Desai — Sun, 17 Jul 2011 22:14:37 +0000

Crazy week last week. Lot of volatility and ups and downs in the market. We saw the market make 3 solid attempts for a bounce only to get faded by the end of the day. That type of action is typical when there is so much political/headline risk in the markets as all rally attempts tend to get faded when news or rumors hit. Nobody wants to hold for more then a few minutes and withouth the underlying bid from pomo we are seeing the structure of the intraday action change slightly. Overall though this pullback was overdue after such an extended run off the bounces on the 200dma in the s&p. With earnings season in play opportunities will be everywhere. One of my favorite sites is to check out the earnings calender on earnings.com http://earnings.com/earning.asp?date=20110718&client=cb Im always looking for stocks that beat eps expectations with charts that show a potential bottoming base or another breakout setup. Earnings beats can set up powerful moves that can go for months in stocks.

The post Stock Market Index Review 7/17/2011 appeared first on Bulls on Wall Street.

Stock Market Index Review 7/10/2011

Kunal Desai — Sun, 10 Jul 2011 23:23:35 +0000

Evening folks. What a great week in the markets last week. Amazing trading opportunities all around especially with such strength in the markets. there was a constant bid under the market all last week leading to some amazing breakout opportunities. The qqq’s led the way last week up almost 3.5% followed by uncle ruseell iwm up 2.81%. the spy trailed up 1.84% for the week. This is what we want to see during market runs we want to see the nadaq and russell lead the way that tells us that spec money is flowing. This is important for the type of trading we do to know and understand when traders are increasing their risk profiles and the money flow goes over the spec side.

The post Stock Market Index Review 7/10/2011 appeared first on Bulls on Wall Street.

6/26/2011 stock market review

Kunal Desai — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 02:02:18 +0000

Evening folks. Got 2 videos for you guys reviewing the stock market indexes. We are going to be digging in to what happened last week and what we can expect this week. Overall the action in the market was very casino like. Big swings both up and down. It was definately obvious the programs were in charge you could feel the order flow come in at key levels especially for gap fills and big price areas. I do believe even with the nastiness the price action is getting somewhat better. Im still seeing enough in the breadth numbers (breakouts vs breakdowns) 4% breakouts etc to suggest that the market is attempting to make a move and form a bottom. Does that mean it will? Nope! But its a start

The post 6/26/2011 stock market review appeared first on Bulls on Wall Street.

Stock Market Review 6/19/2011

Kunal Desai — Sun, 19 Jun 2011 20:37:37 +0000

Happy fathers day folks. Interesting week in the markets we are right on key support levels. We finally got the test of the 200 day moving average in the S&P. It seems the market is attempting to form a bottom here but so far we dont have any actual evidence to support that. More then just the moving averages Im watching those March Low’s as my Get the F$%$ out of here moment in the market. Here is the video for my review on the indexes for GLD, SLV, EEM, SPY, IWM, QQQ, XLE, USO, DIA, UUP, FXI.

The post Stock Market Review 6/19/2011 appeared first on Bulls on Wall Street.

Some Market Thoughts

Kunal Desai — Sun, 12 Jun 2011 04:57:53 +0000

Good Summary of what the market is looking for on Monday..

The post Some Market Thoughts appeared first on Bulls on Wall Street.

WOW. Bulls Smacked Around Today

Kunal Desai — Thu, 02 Jun 2011 04:14:18 +0000

WOW. This was a good day to sit out of the market if you’re a swing or position trader. Of course, intraday, there are always moves and that’s exactly what the Boom Factor looks to uncover – intraday movers and possible new momo setups into swings. I did not participate in the market today, but a look at the intraday SPY shows a very orderly sell-off with volume. It’s very had to say whether the market is truly turning over, but it is prudent to remain cautious. This means a combination of taking a lot of cash home at night, jumping in and out of day trades, and swinging stocks with heavy momo and support.

The post WOW. Bulls Smacked Around Today appeared first on Bulls on Wall Street.

Market Summary

Kunal Desai — Fri, 27 May 2011 01:57:05 +0000

The post Market Summary appeared first on Bulls on Wall Street.

Boom Boom stocks 5/12/2011

Kunal Desai — Thu, 12 May 2011 08:28:54 +0000

Morning folks. Made a video today instead. We do do the videos for our subs in our premium section for our bulls subscribers everyday. Market commentary, watchlists,education, we have a ton of amazing sections on our premium site if you really want to boost your trading. With the market a bit tricky these days figured this would help everyone.

The post Boom Boom stocks 5/12/2011 appeared first on Bulls on Wall Street.