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Stock Market Index Review 7/10/2011

Kunal Desai — Sun, 10 Jul 2011 23:23:35 +0000

Evening folks. What a great week in the markets last week. Amazing trading opportunities all around especially with such strength in the markets. there was a constant bid under the market all last week leading to some amazing breakout opportunities. The qqq’s led the way last week up almost 3.5% followed by uncle ruseell iwm up 2.81%. the spy trailed up 1.84% for the week. This is what we want to see during market runs we want to see the nadaq and russell lead the way that tells us that spec money is flowing. This is important for the type of trading we do to know and understand when traders are increasing their risk profiles and the money flow goes over the spec side.

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Stock Market Review 6/19/2011

Kunal Desai — Sun, 19 Jun 2011 20:37:37 +0000

Happy fathers day folks. Interesting week in the markets we are right on key support levels. We finally got the test of the 200 day moving average in the S&P. It seems the market is attempting to form a bottom here but so far we dont have any actual evidence to support that. More then just the moving averages Im watching those March Low’s as my Get the F$%$ out of here moment in the market. Here is the video for my review on the indexes for GLD, SLV, EEM, SPY, IWM, QQQ, XLE, USO, DIA, UUP, FXI.

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4/24/2011 Stock Market Review

Kunal Desai — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 23:53:19 +0000

Nice week in the markets. Tech stocks led the way with a 2.8% return in the QQQ ‘s. The action overall was bullish with the market reacting very favorable to earnings. The reactions were much better last week then the week before which gave an underlying bid to the market.

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Stock Market Review 4/17/2011

Kunal Desai — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 00:07:33 +0000

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Stock Market Review 4/10/2011

Kunal Desai — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 22:04:01 +0000

Interesting week last week. Lot to look at in the stock market indexes. The market is setting up into a few possibilities here that will show us numerous opportunities as they play out. There has been a huge strength in oil & gas names along with gold & silver. ideally to get a good market breakout a rotation out of these names and into other would provide sufficient fuel.

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Diving Board Setup

Kunal Desai — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 00:25:23 +0000

On Friday, we experienced an emotional market slide during mid-after trading that proved one thing – this market is holding on to highs, but appears to be on shaky ground. I tend to think a lot of Friday’s action was related to the possible government shut-down a desire to minimize risk. However, it is worth noting that the last hour of trading brought in some bargain hunters.. in other words, there are still buyers.

The best illustration of where we are today can be represented in the SPX – We’ve been putting in a flat top with lower lows over the last week, or so. It looks similar to what a diving board looks like when you walk out on the end and start bouncing up and down in preparation for the dive. The question is which way the market will go.. Will the diving board launch us up or will the weight of the market break the diving board and we head south? I’m not going to predict it, but it’s important to stay nimble and prepare for a quick move one way or the other.

You can see the ‘diving board’ I drew in on the daily, below:

Here is an illustration: Both moves are strong, so I’m waiting for that action to go in heavy one way or another:

Market summary and commentary:

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4/3/2011 Stock Market Review

Kunal Desai — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 21:10:26 +0000

Here is a look at the market indexes. The overall price pattern is bullish. We do have some divergences that are showing up. Typically those can me ominous but we’ve seen them in the past 6 months to no avail. So be wary of them but follow price first.

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3/20/2011 stock market review

Kunal Desai — Sun, 20 Mar 2011 22:08:53 +0000

evening folks. Nice day in the markets thursday and friday while i was gone. At this point when market has broken key levels of support you have to assume the market is guilty till proven innocent. So any bounces toward 1300/ 50dma i will assume are reflex/relief bounces. Often a breakdown of key support after a big uptrend the market will retest the breakdown spot before rolling over. So watch the action on any bounce it will often sucker in investors before rolling right back over. This action is not for the faint of heart. If you are taking any losses (which u should not be incurring anything but gains) then its a good idea to cut your postion sizes in 1/2 to lessen risk

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Market Snapshot

Kunal Desai — Sat, 19 Mar 2011 16:35:39 +0000

Summary: Market is sitting on support levels in the macro view with many stocks sitting on or failing below support. Libya and Japan continue to the fuel the bears as bulls trade nervously. In other words, it will be harder to go up than down in this environment.

With even America’s pride and joy consumer company, AAPL, showing signs of weakness, it’s hard to go long heavy here. AAPL needs to hold current levels or it could fall fairly significantly and scare all of the technology long traders out of their positions.

I also have an eye on BBY and durable goods orders this week.

Favored Sectors on Friday: There aren’t many. Most traders are removing risk.

Top Friday Sectors:

Uranium
Tobacco – careful – FDA put a smack down news report out.
Rare Earths
Communication Services
Gold and Silver

The Trade: I’ve shortened the time frame on my trades and not exposing more than 10% of my portfolio to swings. I’m also very heavy cash. Throughout the day, I reduce long exposure risk by jumping in and out of SPY Puts. Play defense, not offense.

SPX:

Currently sitting heavy on SMA100 and 23.6% retracement. Friday’s tall upper shadow is not impressive implying traders were exiting on volume. Looks like SPX is trying to build out a bear flag, so we’ll need to watch SMA100 very carefully. A fall below could shake out the nervous longs and send the market quickly to the next strong support level at 1226. Neutral to Bearish.

USO:

The weekly shows the obvious resistance level. Watching the ascending the triangle. Japan pulling down oil while Libya and global turmoil pushing it up.. net – prices holding steady for now.

COPPER:

Looks a lot like the SPX, but the new downward channel is more obvious. JJC is stuck between SMA100 and SMA50 and we’ll need to see a break above trendline resistance for copper to start looking a little stronger. Copper can be used as a temperature of the overall growth in global markets. So, if copper starts moving up while the SPX falls/holds steady, consider that a bullish divergence.

EEM:

Watching the EEM will give you some view into the risk trade and related confidence in ecomonic growth. Investors are less likely (generally) to dump money into EEM if there are fears of gloabal strength. A fall below horizontal support at SMA200 is very bearish – especially for small-caps (also considered riskier). So, keep and eye on EEM to help measure your risk in small sized equities.

GOLD:

GLD is still in an uptrend and it’s probably time to start getting your gold and silver watch list together. If GLD pushes through 140, there will be news coverage and buyers will likely jump in. Watch GLD closely this week. Silver has an even cleaner and strong run up – same story… Watch, for breakout in silver names as well based on the ETF setups.

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2/27/2011 Stock Market Review

Kunal Desai — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 02:21:53 +0000

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